The economic outlook for 2021 will be better and risks to the economic also has been reduced. Despite the spread of COVID19 and the emergence of a new strain of the virus that has posed significant risks to the US economy, but the vaccinations have shown the effectiveness, the end-of-year fiscal recovery measures adopted, the priority to keep interest rates low, combined with measures adopted after President Joe Biden became the new US President and this became a key driver of the US economy to be stronger.

In fact, in trading on Thursday, the US dollar rose slightly and is moving around 90 levels. Following the release of the excellent ADP employment data, the dollar/yen pair also gained momentum to 110.250 and is expected to continue rising to 110.600 if non-farm payroll data is great.

Fundamental analysis:

Employment rate data released by the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in May was 978,800, better than the expected 650,000, and the growth rate has reached new highs since June last year. As the data came out better, the US dollar index started to rise sharply, leading to a stronger US dollar/Yen.

The US dollar has tried to recover twice recently but failed after the recession through the release of non-farm payrolls in April, but the data is expected that will increase in May. According to the release of good data from ADP employment data, which is the main indicator that shows that non-farm payroll data will also increase.

In addition to the published ADP employment data, there are also has two important data released last night:

1.Unemployment Claim Data: May data of 385,000, better than the expected 400,000 and April data of 405,000. The decline in the data suggests that more Americans are employed, contributing to the recovery of the US economy.

2.Business Information, Production and Services Report (ISM Services PMI): May 64 data, 63 expected data, 62.7 April data.

In Japan, due to the outbreak of the COVID19, the country was forced to remain in a state of emergency until June 20, this made the Japanese economy is also got affected.

Japan just started vaccinating in February, which is slower than most developed countries. To date, only 2.9 million people (2.3% of the total Japanese population) have been vaccinated both shots.

Technical analysis

As the US dollar index recently reached its initial support and stabilized at that position, the sell dollar market is weakened, and non-farm payroll data will be an opportunity for the dollar to boost. The USD/Yen pair has broken the 50-day and 200-day SMA moving average, indicating optimism for the pair to continue to rise, according to the hourly chart. In the uptrend, it is moving towards its next resistance, pushing the price further positive in the upcoming trading session, investors should be focusing on next target at 110.60, then 111.05.

Trading Recommendation Today: Investors can trade this pair between 109,802 and 110,693.

Analyzed by:Ms. OEURN KIMGECH,Independent analyst