he dollar/yen pair rebounded from a 10-month high of 112.21 recorded on Feb. 20 for the first time and then dropped sharply to 101.19 (about 3 years and 4 months low) on 3/9.

Yesterday, however, it rebounded to 111.68 once, considering to the appreciation of the dollar associated with the demand for asset cash and the mood for risk appetite given the expectation of large US economic measures.

In just one month, the magnificent “go and come”, such as “decrease by 10 yen/return by 10 yen”, has been developed.

In the meantime, the Ichimoku Equilibrium Table Conversion Line and Baseline, the Bollinger Midband, the 200-day Moving Average, the Ichimoku Equilibrium Table Cloud’s lower and upper limits have been surpassed, and the reversal of three roles, which indicates a strong selling signal, has also ended.It is becoming a chart shape that makes you aware of the “strength of formation”.

However, MKT expects the risk of spreading new coronavirus infection, lower long-term interest rates in the United States → dollar selling, and weaker US stocks → risk-averse yen buying in yen Channels.

As described above, the dollar/yen is technically“rising pressure”, but given its fundamental weakness, the risk of a rebound is cautious.

Although demand for asset cashing and the US large-scale economic stimulus agreement continue to show steady movement, it is likely that we will need to prepare for a rebound after one cycle (sell the fact due to running out of material).

While looking at trends in US equities and US long-term interest rates and oil prices, headlines over the new coronavirus and the results of US economic indicators (particularly paying attention to the number of new unemployment insurance applications announced at 19:30 Cambodian time) We continue to expect the dollar/yen pair to fall back as the main scenario. We anticipate that the 10-month high of 112.21 recorded on 2/20 will be back and sales will strengthen.

The movement in the 111.50-70 zone has been sluggish for the past four days.
Today’s expected range: 109.75-112.00.

Analyzed by: Mr. Naoto Arase, Head of Fintech of Goldwell Capital