US employment statistics are a bullish surprise
- 2020-06-08
According to the May employment statistics released by the US Department of Labor on May 5, the unemployment rate was 13.3%, an improvement from 14.7% in April, which was the worst postwar period. Market forecasts had deteriorated to 19.8%, but this was an unexpected improvement.
In addition, the number of employees in the non-agricultural sector improved by 259,000, against the previous forecast of 8 million. The April forecast was slightly revised down from a decrease of 20.53 million to 20,687,000, but the improvement in the unemployment rate and the increase in the number of employees were a big surprise for the market.
Large-scale economic measures, cash payments, corporate support, and leave guarantees by the US government may have been effective. The service industry, which accounts for 70% of the total employment, increased by 2.425 million and that of restaurants and hotels increased by 1.22 million.
The manufacturing industry also increased by 225,000. There is a possibility that economic activity has resumed, and the employment situation, which has deteriorated sharply from the end of March to May, may have settled down for the time being.
The stock market has already suffered a corona shock in the March crash, and the U.S. Fed’s interest rate cuts, quantitative monetary easing, and the US government’s largescale economic measures have continued to maintain an optimistic rally in favor of postCorona recovery expectations. It can be said that the improvement of US employment statistics has made the stock market more confident.
Analyzed by: Mr. Naoto Arase, Head of Fintech of Goldwell Capital