The dollar-yen pair surged to 111.12 over US time, rising to the same level as the record high on June 24 for the first time in about a year and three months. All tenors from the upper leg to the lower leg continue to have SANYAKU turnaround that suggests a strong buying signal and a perfect order for the moving average line, and from a technical point of view, the chart shape is conscious of a further rise. We are the next target is 111.72, which was recorded on March 24, last year.

From a fundamental perspective, the US Home Price Index announced the day before (April FHFA Home Price Index: Maximum Growth Rate since 1991 Statistics Started, US April S & P Core Logic CS20 Urban Home Price Index: 2005 The growth rate for the first time in about 15 and a half years since December) has reminded us of inflation concerns across the board, and the US June ADP employment statistics released yesterday also showed strong results. If the figures for employment items in the business conditions index and the figures for the US June employment statistics on weekends give strong results, the combination of “inflation concerns + labor market improvement” will rekindle US early tapering observations → US long-term Rising interest rates → It is expected that the ripple path of the appreciation of the US dollar will become stronger.

Based on the above, we will continue to anticipate a rise in the dollar-yen exchange rate as the main scenario (Today, the Bank of Japan Tankan announced at 6:50 Cambodian time, the number of new unemployment insurance applications in the US at 19:30, 21:00 Pay attention to the US June ISM Manufacturing Business Index ).

Today’s forecast range: 110.80-111.60.

Analyzed by: Mr. Naoto Arase, Independent Analyst